Another week has passed in our strange sort of stasis, with no real movement on another stimulus package. Nevertheless, the economic data are providing ever more insistent reminders why another round is going to be needed, and sooner rather than later.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15 came in at 1.106 million, compared with expectations of some 920,000. New claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the program available to gig and self-employed workers, also went up, from 488,000 to 543,000. Adding to the gloom, the number of people on Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) remains over a million and continues to increase. As Dion Rabouin of Axios Markets explains, “the PEUC is a CARES Act program for unemployed Americans who have exhausted the 26 weeks of unemployment benefits they get from their state. It has grown from 27,000 people on April 11 to 1.3 million as of Aug. 1: it’s likely made up of people who lost their jobs before the wave of business closures that hit the U.S. in mid-March.”
Meanwhile the stock market moves forward. Even allowing for the fact that markets typically anticipate a recovery, what we are now seeing is clearly a product of ultra-low interest rates and, well, the pressure of cash.
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